3 Weeks in the Books

So three weeks are down, and everyone is still very much alive in the realm of fantasy football, but who is playing well, and who should you bench? Well, we all know that depends on your team and your strategy, and sometimes, there comes a time when even a first round pick needs to be benched. Let's not push the panic button just yet, but remember, that is always an option, even if it is a hard one to swallow.

Here is a look at the guys that have been successful, as well as those that are lagging behind through the first three weeks of the season:

Quarterbacks:

3 Positives

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos - Cutler has been quite impressive thus far this season, and given his likely draft position has been a pleasant surprise for many owners. The Broncos have put up 41, 39, and 34 points in their 3 games this year, and Cutler has been a big part of that success and he is second in the NFL in touchtown tosses at 8. However, keep in mind that those three games were against the Raiders, the Chargers, and the Saints - not exactly three teams lighting it up on defense this season. But Cutler remains a good start every week - and as long as he keeps finding Brandon Marshall, he'll be just fine.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - like Cutler, Rivers has been quite impressive thus far. He has thrown 3 touchdowns in each game that he has played (currently leading the league with 9) with over 217 yards per contest (including a 377 yard performance against Denver in week 2). Rivers is young, and like Cutler as well, has matured very well in the Chargers system. He will remain being a good option for fantasy owners considering all the talent around him - when Tomlinson returns to good health, expect Rivers to benefit even further.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - I looked for a suitable quarterback to include on my list of top 3 of the first 3 weeks, and I landed upon Romo. Romo is a quarterback I like a lot, and I tried to make a case for Donovan McNabb here (someone I had said would be a bust) but I found Romo to have one thing McNabb does not - consistency. And I don't necessarily mean consistency on a down to down basis, but more on a total game basis. Romo has thrown over 260 yards in all three games he has played - topping 300 twice already, and he has thrown a touchdown in each game - as has McNabb; both men have tossed 5 on the season. Romo, however, has the more consistency in passing yardage and thus gets my nod here - McNabb's numbers have slipped from week one.

3 Negatives

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals - has there been a bigger disappointment in starting quarterback thus far this season? Palmer is a quarterback that has completed over 64% of his passes coming into this season, but has been struggling to complete 57% this year. He has thrown for over 3,800 yards each of the past 3 seasons - topping 4,000 yards twice, but this year is on pace for only 2,700 yards. His touchdowns the past three seasons: 32, 28, and 26 - this season, ONE. It's safe to say Palmer has disappointed and frustrated fantasy owners causing each week to be a struggle when setting their starting lineup. It seems to me that the Bengals are a train wreck, and thus, it would seem to be in the better interest of fantasy owner's sanity to find another option - Palmer clearly isn't getting it done. This week could be the week, but then again, it might not be - and there has to be a quarterback more worthy of your time.

Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns - Anderson is a close second to the torturous season that Palmer is having. Thus far, Anderson has completed a paltry 46% of his passes for a mere 405 yards and 2 touchdowns. Given his success of a season ago (where he threw for 3,787 yards and 29 TDs) his numbers are obviously not living up to last years hype. Now, Romeo Crennel says he is prepared to evaluate his quarterback position, and we just might see Brady Quinn sooner rather than later. It seems Derek Anderson's ship has sunk - at least for now. Perhaps he was never quite as good as he lead people to believe last year, but this much is clear, in the realm of fantasy football, Anderson has been a major let down through three weeks (and if Crennel makes the change, possibly the season).

Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings - this one isn't likely to be a season breaker for most owners, but I did have Tavaris on my sleepers list at quarterback and all he has done is lose his starting job. Jackson played the first two games, producing an 0-2 record to show for his 308 yards passing with only 1 TD. He seemed to lack confidence in making his reads and execution in his throws. For these reasons Brad Childress was forced to make the move to Freotte - in order to save the Vikings season. At least for one week this strategy paid off, for those owners of Jackson, however, it seems to have been a wasted draft pick.

Running Backs

3 Positives

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - it's hard to argue with the success. Turner currently leads the NFL in rushing yards and is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns. However, if I were to argue against the success, I would say Turner has had his big games against teams with less than stellar defenses. But still, hard to argue with a man who has 1 200 yard game and 2 100 yard games in the first three weeks. Keep him in your lineup until he seems run into the ground - otherwise, keep putting him in your lineup and hope the Falcons keep feeding him the ball.

Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - he was given the starting job after the departure of Julius Jones and he has hit the ground running (was there any doubt that he wouldn't?). Through 3 games Barber has only surpassed 100 yards once (a 142 yard performance against Green Bay on Sunday night), but that is of little concern to Barber owners since Barber has had at least one touchdown in each game (and 2 touchdowns in two of the three). Barber is a touchdown machine, and this should not change as the season progresses. Even with Felix Jones taking some of Barber's carries, it shouldn't worry owners because all that means is Barber will be fresher longer - and that is a scary thought for opposing defenses.

Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks - if we are going to talk about positive influences in the realm of fantasy football leagues, then we have to go deep into most drafts and locate Julius Jones. Jones was all but a forgotten man last season on Dallas, but the move to the northwest has really seemed to inspire Jones, who is running with purpose in Seattle. He is second in the league in rushing yards (312) and though he lacks a big presence in the passing game, he has come out of nowhere to have two straight 100 yard performances, and that has to count for something. Jones may drop off as the season progresses, but for now, he looks like a good start - if only he can upend the big name players at the running back position on most fantasy rosters.

3 Negatives

Stephen Jackson, St. Louis Rams - is there any other choice for this dubious category? Through 3 games Jackson has zero touchdowns and only 159 yards on the ground. He does have 133 yards receiving - most of that coming on a 50 yard pass play against Seattle. He has been a far cry from what everyone expects out of him - and given his new, big contract, he has certainly been a far cry from what the executives in St. Louis had expected. Jackson, even if you drafted him in the first round, might be better served as a spot starter against teams with weaker defenses - granted, his first three games have been against the Eagles, the Giants, and the aforementioned 'Hawks - but who among us really doesn't expect a great runner to produce no matter who the opponent? Given the criteria for greatness, Jackson remains far from it.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - again, using the criteria of where the player was likely drafted and given their play thus far, Addai has to be on this list. He has averaged a lackluster 3.3 yards per carry through three, and he desperately needs the Colts offensive line to heal. Addai had his best game Sunday against Jacksonville, but overall, he isn't adding up - Addai has run for only 142 yards (add 26 to that through the air) and as a number one fantasy back, you would hope to receive that yardage total in one game. Addai has scored 3 touchdowns, but two of them came against Jacksonville. If he can't turn this around, Addai might be one you want to look to replace - it might not be time to push that panic button yet, but keep your hand close.

Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - I know, I know, he had a huge game against New England this past weekend, but this isn't about who has had the biggest single game, but who has been producing overall - in regard to the expected value of that player. I truly thought Brown was going to rebound this year after his injury last year, and so far, he has disappointed. In the first two games of the year he has had 23 and 25 yards, respectively and one touchdown. Hardly the numbers I would expect out of a second round pick (which is where I figured Brown would find himself). The fact that Ricky Williams (who could have been one of the three negatives as well, but since his draft stock was not as high, I chose to leave him off the list) is getting half of the carries, and perhaps Brown's big days are going to remain being sparse. Too bad too, because I still think Brown has all the talent in the world given the right opportunity.

Wide Receivers

3 Positives

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - I had mentioned (merely in passing) that Jennings might not find success with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, however, through 3 games I have been proven wrong. Jennings has yet to find the end zone, and for that reason, one could make the argument that he should not be on this list, however, he has had over 91 yards each of the first three weeks (including two 100 yard performances) and it seems finding the end zone will happen sooner rather than later. Given his current production, and the way Rodgers seems to have a rapport with him, I would keep Jennings in the lineup until something drastic happens - 19 catches and 373 yards is nothing to sneeze at through 3 weeks - the touchdowns are only a matter of time.

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - I considered leaving Marshall off of this list only because of the fact that he produced well last year, and wasn't really flying in under too many radars, but then again, this isn't about being a sleeper, but about production through 3 weeks (or in Marshall's case, 2 weeks). In his two games, Marshall has been spectacular - recording 166 and 155 yards in each game and producing a touchdown in each. If he continues this torrid pace, he will smash the receiving yards record - not to mention he has grabbed 24 balls in 2 games (capped by the 18 catches he had against San Diego); so if your league is points per reception, then Marshall is an obvious lock - but in any format, he'll fit in quite nicely.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - in my top busts of 2008 post, I mention Santana Moss, and all he has done thus far is prove me wrong. Moss is still inconsistent as far as his yardage totals are concerned, but he has scored a touchdown in each start. His reception total has been fairly consistent as well though, and if his catches can total 5-7 he has averaged this year, then eventually, in each game, you can wait for him to break one - given his blazing speed - if his reception total remains consistent, then Moss remains a solid start.

3 Negatives

Randy Moss, New England Patriots - obviously, this choice is due to the injury to Tom Brady, however, since no one saw the injury coming, Moss was likely a first round pick, and he is far from producing as such. Through 3 weeks Moss in 30th in the NFL in receiving yards and has only managed one touchdown reception. The past two weeks his receiving total has been 22 and 25 yards - and those two games were against teams without great defenses in the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. It seems unless the Patriots can figure something out, with either Cassel or a new quarterback, that Moss will continue to suffer, right along with millions of Moss fantasy football owners.

Roy Williams, Detroit Lions - again, in my sleeper list I was wrong (a full report card on sleepers will follow the season) so far this year. Roy Williams has had 47, 48, and 18 yards receiving in his three games - and only one touchdown to show for his efforts. For a team that has been playing from way behind all season, these numbers are utterly unacceptable - and even for a team that is competitive, Williams numbers are lacking. Either way, competitive or not, Williams in your lineup will not keep your team competitive. Until he can provide consistency (and actually numbers above 75 yards - consistency) then I would stay away from him. Yes, he has been consistent this year in keeping his numbers sub-50 yards per outing - hardly the consistency one would hope for.

Ocho Cinco, Cincinnati Bengals - Yes, I called him Ocho Cinco - for the simple reasoning that he did legally change his name, other than that, he'll forever be (and should have remained) Chad Johnson. Anyway, perhaps Mr. Cinco shouldn't have spent so much time in the offseason changing his name and more time on actually practicing. His numbers have not been anything more than what one would expect out of a mediocre tight end - 22, 37, and 29 yards in each of the first three games and zero touchdowns - I guess the question is, will he ever even reach his name in receiving yardage at all this year (and I mean ochenta y cinco - not this contrived "Ocho Cinco" he thinks means 85).

Tom Brady

So Tom Brady is done for the year, and you had high hopes for him, but now that he is out, what are your options? Well, like the Patriots, you can either ride your current backup (you did draft a suitable backup, right?) or you can go fishing through current available quarterbacks, but who would be your best choice of those available? Well, depending on your league, you may have to go looking for a trade, or search through those quarterbacks still on the board - which are likely slim pickings. I'm going to take a look at a dozen quarterbacks that could potentially still be available and what you can expect from each - hopefully, this can give you some direction as to where to go from here:

1) Troy Smith, Baltimore Ravens - word out of Baltimore is that when Smith returns from an injury of his own, that he will take over the reigns to lead the Ravens' offense. This option doesn't seem very viable, in that you will surely be disappointed in the results.

2) Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears - chances are, he is still floating around in most leagues. What he will do for you is be consistent. He has shown flashes of things he is capable of - and he can put a nice touch on his passes. In a bind, Orton can be manageable, but you are looking at 2,500 yards passing on the year - and maybe 15-20 TDs - not very Brady-esque, but who really is?

3) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - it's possible Rodgers was drafted on Favre's coat-tails, but in the off-chance that he was not, he does warrant some consideration for the now Brady-less teams. Rodgers performed fairly well on Monday night against a decent Vikings defense. He pulled out the victory, though his numbers were far from spectacular. What he did prove on Monday is that maybe he does belong at the helm of the Packers offense. Is he a fantasy starter? Probably not - but again, if you are in a bind, he will do, for now - and he may surprise as well. Hard to tell what to expect since he has such limited NFL action under his belt.

4) Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings - again, Jackson should be available in most formats, but is he someone you want on your fantasy team? That depends. Jackson is very capable of having the big day, and he can score points with his legs, however, he can be very inconsistent, and one thing Brady was always able to provide was consistency - so do you pick up Jackson and roll the dice from week to week? Probably not - but if your backup is sufficient (the backup that has been thrust into your starting lineup with the Brady injury) - then Jackson might be worth your backup job now - in hopes that he flies high in your current starters' off-week.

5) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - the Falcons soared in week one against a very weak Detroit Lions defense. If there is one thing that stands out from that game, however, it's that the Falcons will look to run the ball. Ryan had a good game, yes, but A) it was against the poultry Lions defense, and B) with the running game working as well as it was, I would bet many a quarterback can find holes in the secondary. However, if you believe in this offense (of which I was skeptical of before seeing them week 1) then I would give this kid a chance. All the Falcons offensive players seem to have one thing in common, speed - and if Ryan can distribute the ball efficiently, he may just be in for a huge year - just don't expect it since its hard for a rookie quarterback to have much success in this league. Worthwhile consideration, and should do just fine in a pinch.

6) Chris Simms, Tennessee Titans - reports today say that Simms will sign with the Titans - and if Vince Young can't go, it seems Simms will get the playing time in Tennessee. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Simms, and therefore, I would stay away. Again, if you are running thin on options, Simms is worthy of consideration, but just remember, before rupturing his spleen in Tampa, his stats that season were unimpressive, and he hasn't seen any action since. This would be a hard sell to me, but desperate times could call for this as a desperate measure.

7) Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia is the unquestioned starter in Tampa, but that doesn't mean he'll provide much value. Garcia's time has likely passed - and given the lethargic Tampa offense, I would stay away from him. However, it is possible he pulls a few good games out of the hat, and he should be consistent from week to week. Being that you might have been a former Brady owner, you might want that level of consistency, and Garcia can provide that - just don't expect his consistent numbers to fly off the page at you - expect 200 yards with 1-2 TD passes on a week to week basis - and all this assuming he remains healthy as well.

8) Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins - Pennington is similar to Garcia above. He won't give you the flashy, he'll win the game all on his own, games this year, but he should be a fairly consistent presence. He will provide similar number to that of Garcia, but he should be a healthier option. Of course, don't forget that Pennington has been stung by the injury bug throughout his career as well - that, and the Dolphins offense might not perform at a high level this year either. Probably best to stay away from Pennington as well - but again, in a pinch ...

9) Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - if Warner was not drafted he might be a good option for Brady-owners (or ex-Brady owners). The Cardinals still have the high profile receivers and Warner is smart enough to know how to get them the ball. Warner still has the potential to sling the ball around on a weekly basis - with lots of potential to "go off" in any given week. He might also get hurt, or Leinart could potentially retake the job - but for now, Warner would seem to be a good option - provided he is actually available. If not, you might be able to trade for Warner without being forced to give up too much of your starting lineup.

10) JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders - I would venture a guess that Russell is still available in most leagues - however, I would also tell you to stay away. The Raiders offense doesn't seem to have gotten better this off-season, and Russell is the driving force to that machine. If there aren't any other options, then I would hope you have a more suitable backup already in place. Don't give up on your season by starting Russell on a weekly basis - otherwise, you will be in for a very long, and unpleasant, fantasy football season.

11) J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers - Two words - Mike Martz. I realize Martz went to Detroit and seemed to falter - but his quarterback still threw for 4,000 yards. O'Sullivan won the job in San Francisco and he could potentially pay huge dividends. He is likely still available, and if the Martz-Magic pays off, so could O'Sullivan for his fantasy owners. Remember, Mike Martz is the guy that made a star (and league MVP) out of the unknown Kurt Warner - and O'Sullivan has been around the league for a few years, probably learning lots about reading defenses. O'Sullivan could be a high risk situation, but a very intriguing one as well - if you like risks, I would go for it, otherwise, stick with what is proven and what is consistent. Could be worth a backup position for your now Brady-less team though.

12) Matt Cassel, New England Patriots - or, after all is said and done, you can do what the Patriots seem to be doing - going to the backup. We know what the Patriots offense is capable of with the likes of Maroney, Welker, and Moss - and maybe, just maybe, Cassel can lead that offense. It may not be just as prolific as it would be lead by Brady, himself, but Cassel should be able to see to it that the offense doesn't stall - and that could prove beneficial to, not only the Patriots, but to the owners that are willing to take a chance on a guy that knows the system well and will be throwing to Moss on a weekly basis.

So there are the twelve men that could potentially be available in most leagues, while at the same time could provide some value. If the decision were mine to make (and assuming I didn't have a suitable backup to begin with) I think I would go out on a limb and pick up J.T. O'Sullivan, Matt Cassel, and Matt Ryan, although as I said, I do believe that Warner is a very viable option at this point - but I guess consider me a risk taker. To each their own, and I hope this helps provide you with some options you hadn't considered before. Just remember all is not lost on a fantasy team lacking Tom Brady - assuming you already have a stable core, all you need is to plug in a good enough quarterback to remain competitive. Good luck to all - and sorry for your early season misfortune.

Hall of Fame Game

First off, congratulations to Art Monk for being inducted into the Hall of Fame. He is truly a worthy induction, and it is absolutely fitting that he is inducted the weekend the Redskins play in Canton. But enough of that, onto the game and what to look for in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, August 3rd at 7:00 PM CST:

The Indianapolis Colts are playing the Washington Redskins in the first preseason game of the 2008 season, so what do we look for? Traditionally, preseason games are generally reserved to start weining out the haves versus the have-nots - or those that will make the team versus those that will not. And the first preseason game of the year is nothing more than a warmup across the board, but after all, it is football.
As far as fantasy impact, most of the players worthy of being drafted will play the first series - which could mean 3 plays of a three and out, or 14 plays of a long scoring drive. Typically the former is the case. So what to look for in 3 plays given the matchup?

Start by watching Jason Campbell. This is the year, I feel, that he either "makes it" as an NFL quarterback or he does not. If he starts slow in the season, the Redskin faithful will likely start calling for his head. However, that will not happen in this first preseason game - so all we need to look at is Campbell's footwork, his movement in the pocket, and if he makes the right decisions - even if that means throwing the ball away.

Also watch Santana Moss - if Campbell looks his way once or twice, it means good things might be coming for Moss during the season - of course it is way too early to predict if Campbell to Moss is going to become an effective duo - and no one will ever mistake them for Manning to Harrison of years past.

For Clinton Portis, watch that he makes it through the game since he has been hit with injuries in past preseasons.

Peyton Manning? Expect nothing - if he plays at all, watch for 3 handoffs.

Joseph Addai - same thing. He should play very limited, if at all. Look for a couple of carries if he plays, or maybe one route ran into the flat (where he likely will not be thrown the football) - other than that, it'll be time for the backups.

Anthony Gonzalez is one guy that is on a few radars as a sleeper (he is not one of mine), and he is likely the only person that will make any sort of splash in fantasy football that will see any significant playing time on Sunday. Look for Gonzalez to play the first quarter, but nothing more. He might make one or two plays for 20-30 yards total - but nothing terribly exciting, but he will have gotten his feet wet.

Reggie Wayne will play the same number of plays as Peyton, and likely will not have any balls thrown his direction.

Marvin Harrison will likely not play a single down - if he even suits up for the contest.

If all the fantasy football impact players in thie game make it out injury free, then it will be considered a success. Even with the backups playing most (if not all) of the game, it will be nice to see professional football again. Welcome back, boys.

What Makes a Sleeper?

By definition a sleeper is anyone you can pick up that is flying under the radar. However, in the realm of today's fantasy football world this is growing increasingly rare. With the amount of magazines, television shows, and web pages devoted to the subject of "fantasy football" the likelihood of finding that one major player that no one else is considering is growing increasingly rare. Because of this, sleepers have been higher in demand, and thus being selected before their time.
The true test to find a sleeper is to make the selection of someone you will likely be ridiculed for - for instance, if you had drafted Derek Anderson in the eleventh round in last year's draft as your starting QB, you would have been laughed at (and rightfully so since he was second on the depth chart at that point behind Charlie Frye) - only for you to be the one with the last laugh by not wasting a second or third round pick on the likes of Carson Palmer or Drew Brees.
My point is simple, to truly get a sleeper in today's fantasy football formats, you must be willing to endure some ridicule, because you will be the one laughing when that late round draft pick works in your favor.

Top Busts -2008

Here I will list those players I view as being a potential bust. The term "bust" is realitive to the round the player is expected to be drafted in, so no round and no player is safe from this list. Shall we begin:

Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns - Jamal is a big, tough running back, but he has lots of miles on his legs now. Given the fact that he had an outstanding season last year, his draft value has likely risen - meaning he has farther to fall. I don't see Jamal duplicating his numbers of last year - he may still be a 1,000 yard back this year, but 1,300 and beyond will be a stretch for the aging back.

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - He is quick and is deadly in the open field, but he's small and durability might become a factor. Add in the fact that the Steelers drafted Rashard Mednenhall, and you have a running back by committee situation. I won't doubt Parker's abilities, but if he's taken before the second round, you'll be jumping the gun on this one.

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings - I've seen Berrian on many a sleepers list this year, but I think he'll fall flat after signing the big (and probably overpaid) contract. Don't get me wrong, the guy can fly, but he only has marginal hands. Add in the fact that you can make the argument that his QB-situation has actually gotten worse and the running game is vastly improved moving from the Bears to the Vikings, and you can see that Berrian won't have many balls flying his way, whether he can fly or not.

Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals - I don't care where you draft this guy, he is overrated. I believe even in his heyday he was overrated. For a running back in today's NFL to not catch the ball out of the back field he is automatically a bust (in my world). Given his recent injury history, and he is as safe a bet as any of someone you should just say no to.

Donte Stallworth, Cleveland Browns - If he is taken in the waining rounds, he might be a steal, but if he is drafted higher than that, he will be considered a bust. He has all the talent and speed to excel, but the Browns are not a good fit for Stallworth since there are not enough balls to go around in Cleveland - he will have the occasional big day, but his inconsistency will hamper his fantasy value.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Don't fall into the delusion that just because Brett Favre had success in Green Bay that Aaron Rodgers will follow suit. Rodgers is a few notches down from Brett and even though his receivers are the same - Favre made those receivers look better than they are (and you can make an arguement that Driver and Jennings will both be overvalued as well - Jennings likely to be the more productive of the two). If Ryan Grant can't hit the ground running then Rodgers will struggle mightily - I expect Grant to alleviate some of the pressure, but Rodgers' numbers won't be nearly as impressive as you would hope.

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - In my running back sleepers post, I mention Turner, but I also mention he could flop given the Falcons lethargic offense. Turner is definitely a high risk, high reward guy. A lot of people are picking him to excel, but I am having trouble seeing this. He produced in San Diego and has all the tools to be a star back in this league, but not when playing on a Falcons' offense lead by Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, or Joey Harrington.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Given his name alone, he still carries a reputation as "play maker" but if you delve into the numbers you'll notice just another average NFL ball carrier. If he goes too high, his numbers will not justify the selection - but for him to be taken in a place that isn't considered "too high" he would have to fall to the 5th round or beyond, and in most cases that will not happen. If he falls to beyond the 5th round, he might carry some value - but will he be drafted based on his name alone? Most likely.

Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I hate to say it; I really do. I like Earnest Graham. He works hard and played well in extensive work last season, however, he lacks the physical gifts required to succeed as a star. Since Cadillac will be coming back and Dunn has reemerged as a Buccaneer, Graham has potential to falling hard and fast. Best case scenario for Graham is he duplicates his statistics of last season - worst case scenario is he finds himself buried on the depth chart. Due to this uncertainty, I would pass on Graham until the middle to late rounds, but he is (for now) atop the Bucs depth chart, and will likely be taken before the end of the fourth round - far too high for someone that has so far to potentially fall. I hope I am wrong on this one.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - Jones-Drew has tremendous speed and he can take ever carry to the barn, but he has two negatives against him. First of all, Fred Taylor is still in Jacksonville and he will command at least half of the carries which will limit Jones-Drew's touches. Secondly, Jones-Drew must overcome his size (much like Brian Westbrook has been able to do) and he has yet to shed the notion that due to his size, he can't carry the load. Jones-Drew is diminutive in ever sense of the word, but sometimes that small stature can help him run in limited space. He is a good back, but will likely be drafted too early to warrant the workload he is likely to get.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - McNabb has been overrated for years, and I think it is finally coming out. For a quarterback that has only had about 2 good seasons, he sure was always high on draft boards. Given the fact that he no longer looks to run, he has certainly slipped in the fantasy department. If at all possible, pass on McNabb. He warrants a backup at best.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - He's fast and has big play capabilities, but he has been slipping in recent memory. It seems either Jason Campbell can't figure it out, or he and Moss simply do not click, but either way, Moss is a wideout you might consider passing on. As a mid-round backup he might help a team in spotty duty, but if you need a starting, every week receiver, keep looking.

Chad Pennington, New York Jets - Pennington is going to manage the game, nothing more and nothing less. He will be good as a spot starter, but not an every week guy. If you are looking for a strong, durable quarterback then you need to take another look at who's left on the board. Chad is a good QB for the Jets, but not for fantasy football championships.

Matt Hasselback, Seattle Seahawks - His prime has passed him. If he had gotten the ball and scored (and not for the other team) in Green Bay, perhaps he'd have a championship ring by now, but since he did not (and since he failed against the Steelers) he has fallen from grace. Also, Seattle's offense is in shambles and probably won't be resurrected this season - if at all in the near future.

Mark Bulger, St. Louis Rams - Bulger was never the all star quarterback he was made out to be. Even in his heyday he still threw too many interceptions and never quite led the Rams the way Kurt Warner did before him. Throw in the loss of Issac Bruce, the aging of Torry Holt, and the recent injuries to Bulger himself, and you can find a better QB in the pool. Don't be fooled by Bulger's past success.

Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers - Chambers is a big target that had mild success in Miami, but now in San Diego, his yard per game has dropped, and even though his touchdowns were up in San Diego last year, it isn't enough to offset the drop in overall prodcution. Chambers is one of those receivers that never quite developed fully - once a sleeper candidate himself, this year Chambers is someone you should avoid considering all the other talent in San Diego that will warrant the ball before Chambers. He is a backup at best.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Johnson has had lots of success in the past, but is that past catching up with him? His body might be breaking down from the number of carries from season's past. If he can stay healthy, he's still a force, but that could be a big if. If someone falls into a trance, and views last season as an outlier, then it's possible Johnson will be drafted too high, and thus, he finds himself on this list. He is a late first round or second round pick at this point in his career.

Top Ten

So, who should be drafted in the first round? Is Tom Brady worthy of a top 5 pick? Is Peyton Manning? Where does Brian Westbrook make the grade? Is Tomlinson still the number 1 fantasy footballer out there? All these questions and more in my first annual top 10:

1) LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - It's hard to argue with success, and I won't do that here. His numbers were down from the previous season, but Tomlinson still provided his owner's with 18 total TDs and almost 2,000 yards of total offense. It seems you can expect at least numbers on par with this given Tomlinson's track record. He is also very durable, missing only 1 game in his 7 year career.
2) Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - This is a guy I have liked for years (and I hate the Eagles) and it seems he is finally getting the recognition he deserves for being such a dynamic player. He has been given more and more opportunities in recent seasons and I only expect this trend to continue. Look for Westbrook to easily surpass 2,000 total yards (for the second straight season) and score 12-15 TDs. Durability no longer seems to be an issue in regard to Westbrook.
3) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - What can you say about this guy? He has excellent vision and quick feet - once he has day-light he can hit the home run with his break away speed. A grip? Possibly his lack of receiving out of the back field, but it seems that was more of a coaching thing than a reflection of Peterson's ability. Peterson has tremendous upside value, but don't forget that Chester Taylor may still take away from his touches - most likely in the passing game. Look for Peterson to have 1,500 yards rushing, 150-200 receiving and 15 TDs.
4) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Don't get me wrong, I don't have a problem with picking running back, running back in rounds one and two - but the value added for the other top running backs vs. Brady here is not an even trade off. Brady lost Donte Stallworth in the off-season, but he retained Welker and Moss - and those were the driving forces to Tom's record setting performance. Look for Brady to near his totals of last season with over 4,000 yards and 40 TD tosses.
5) Stephen Jackson, St. Louis Rams - His numbers took a nose dive last year, but I look for him to rebound. If Bulger stays healthy, Jackson's receiving totals should push back into the 500-600 yard range. As for his rushing totals, I look for him to receive more carries and push the pile hard given his large frame - look for 1,300 yards rushing out of him. He also has the size to be a scoring machine near the goal line, for this reason, I expect a dozen TDs out of him.
6) Randy Moss, New England Patriots - Sure, who wants to pick a WR with the 6th pick, I get that, but just like Brady at 4, the value added with Moss is far too great to ignore given the remaining field. Moss is far and away the best receiver in the game (my apologizes to Terrell Owens) playing on the best team in the NFL (and my apologizes to the Cowboys), and he is the best run away talent at any position. For this reason, Moss makes this list - he should near his totals of last year - look for 1,400 yards with 15-18 TD receptions.
7) Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - The time will soon come when Manning to Harrison is no longer the staple of the Colts offense, and when that time comes Addai will step in to pick up the pieces. Addai has everything you could ever want in an every down back in the NFL: good feet, blitz recognition, good hands, and toughness. Oh yeah, he's a pretty good runner as well. Taking all that into consideration, and provided that the Colts wideouts might soon become depleted, I look for Addai to rack up around 1,500-1,700 total yards with about a dozen touchdowns.
8) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Here the field becomes muddled and you can make arguments for a multitude of players, but I have to go with Frank Gore. Granted, much like Jackson above, he had a down year last season - but that should change this year. Gore has the speed and strength you look for in a number 1 back. He also has excellent hands and should catch his share of balls in the passing game. I look for Gore to secure 1,600-1,700 total yards and 10-12 total touchdowns.
9) Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Believe me, I know what the naysayers will say here - he is coming off a major injury and the Dolphins have no passing game - which I retort - that is exactly why I pick him. I feel he will fight through the injury and return to form - given that the Dolphins do not have a passing game, it simply means more touches all the way around for Brown. If he remains healthy (be sure to check his status throughout the preseason to ensure no ill-effects are shown when cutting) Brown should come in at 1,500-1,700 total yards with 10-12 TDs.
10) Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He came on strong last year when he saw significant playing time, and his numbers did not decline in the playoffs. He is a strong talent and he should not disappoint this year, if Aaron Rodgers can provide enough relief in the passing game. Rodgers will not be mistaken for Favre any time soon and Grant could suffer for it. However, given his raw talent and breakaway speed, I still would put Grant down for 1,500 total yards and 9-11 TDs.

Honorable Mentions:

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - I'll be honest, I can't stand the way the media puts this guy on a pedistal, but I have to admit, he is a rare talent throwing the football. If Harrison can remain healthy (and out of off the field trouble - sounds weird to hear and say) then Manning should easily surpass 35 touchdown passes, and 4,000 yards or more is a given with this guy, considering he has accomplished that feat for 8 of the past 9 years running (his only miss was a 3,747 yard showing in 2005).

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - When was the last time a Chiefs running back was not drafted in the top 3, let alone the first round? It seems like a long time, but this is the season that has too many question marks surrounding the Chiefs' back. First of all, Johnson has endured a lot of carries in a short time leading up to his injury that sidelined him last year - is that a sign of things to come, or a mere fluke? If Johnson can remain healthy he is just as dynamic as anyone and can provide a great steal in the late first; early second round - that is, IF he can stay healthy. The Chiefs like to run the ball, and Johnson likes to carry it - but does he have enough left in the tank? Only time will tell, but I'll pencil a healthy Larry Johnson in for 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns.

Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - I put Barber in as a sleeper in terms of number one running back if taken in late round two or round three, but it seems he might actually be taken earlier than that. He runs hard, but the question remains if he can carry the load for a full season - how many of those punishing blows he delievers will leave him battered and bruised? Will it add up over the full season? Still, he has first round potential and does require first round consideration and should gain close to 1,200 total yards and a 12-15 TDs.

Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens - If the Ravens ever figure out the passing game, which they seem to be trying to do since their inception, McGahee will have loads of room to run. Even still, with limited room and teams stacking the box, McGahee still manages to be a solid producers and his numbers - given the scarcity of the running back position - warrant first round consideration as well. He should gain over 1,100 yards rushing - throw in another hundred or so yards receiving and 5-8 TDs.

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch was also on my sleeper list for running backs, but I don't think he'll honestly last. He will be a tremendous resource no matter when drafted, even if in the first round. If he stays healthy and the Bills passing game improves (as it should, at least on paper) then look for Lynch to have more holes than he did last year. That can only lead to improved rushing totals, and hopefully more goal line touches. I figured Lynch will have about 1,200 total yards and a half dozen TDs rushing the ball - but this numbers could skyrocket if the passing game pans out as it should. The sky is the limit with Marshawn.

Sleepers - Wide Receivers

As promised:

Wide receivers are harder to diagnose than other positions. The rule of thumbs for top wide outs is that they will break out in their third year - but this may or may not be true. Many a wide receiver has failed to break out in the third year or ever, and some have broken out long before their third season. With that said, I do not have any rookie wideouts on my list, and most are hovering around the third season mark, but let's move on to it:

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - an excellent receiver with all the tools you look for. He is coming off his first full season and should quickly improve over his numbers from last year. His time with Jon Kitna will only help in his vast improvement. Watch for some cannibolism from his teammate and fellow sleeper candidate - Roy Williams - but expect Calvin to easily cath 75 balls for 1,100 yards and 6-9 TDs. Given his tramendous potential, Calvin may go early, but try to hold off and draft him accordingly - between rounds 4 and 6 he should be off most boards.

Roy Williams, Detroit Lions - since speaking of Lions wideouts, why not move directly to Calvin's counterpart? Roy Williams was in and out of the lineup last year, but he still managed to average almost 70 yards per game. People will forget about Williams with the emergence of Calvin Johnson, but at this point in his young career, Roy is already a veteran, and two years ago he put together some impressive numbers. Same rules apply here - watch for Calvin to take some of his gusto, and expect Roy to finish slightly down from his high marks in 2006 - I'd expect him to come in between 65-70 receptions with 1,000 yards and likely 8-10 TDs to his name. Look to pick up Roy in the middle rounds, 6-9.

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - this is a classic example of a wide receiver coming into his third season with everyone expecting a breakout performance, and the jury is still out on this one. Holmes has blazing speed, but he lacks height that Ben Roethlisberger really wants. However, Holmes has played two full seasons in one offense, with the same QB (Ben Roethlisberger) which seems to be a luxury for today's young stars in the making. The experts expect Holmes to improve on his 70 YPG and 8 TDs of a year ago - I expect his numbers to hover right around that mark, but if he's available in the middle rounds (7-10), he would be a great addition to any team. Just remember, Hines Ward will take a lot of catches away from Holmes.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - this was one of the guys that fell off the third year breakout bus last season, however, for all the tools he possesses, he should make up for it in his fourth campaign. At 6 foot 5 inches Jackson is a huge target that runs well - probably needing to improve his route running - and has solid hands. Given the other weapons the Chargers present, Jackson could very well be a forgotten man, and he should benefit from this scenario - as he did in the playoffs last season with 18 receptions, 300 yards, and 2 TDs in the Chargers' 3 playoff games. Expect that trend to continue, and expect Jackson to nab 65 balls for 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs, but expect Jackson to fall on most boards, but not too far. Round 5 I'd start thinking about pluking him, but depending on how the draft is flowing (and what other WRs are still on the board) I would try to hold off until rounds 7-9.

All the other WRs on most sleepers lists don't impress me much. Sidney Rice has all the tools, and I will not deny him that, but he is still a season or two too soon, and given the QB situation (and RB situation) in Minnesota, Rice will not put up impressive enough numbers to warrant any consideration. Also, another player that has been on the "sleeper" list seemingly for the past 4 seasons is D.J. Hackett (I have never been impressed, and remain unimpressed). I feel as if his name says it all - "Hack"-ett . . . and that will continue. He might find some success with the Panthers, but Hackett is oft beaten by the injury bug, as are the Panthers players in general - they seem like a good fit, and I predict Hackett will play only 5-7 games - which equates to little value.

That wraps up my sleepers. I will be editing these posts as other players move into my radar.