This is a place I like to think I excel in. Take it from a guy who in 2002 landed both Ricky Williams and LaDanian Tomlinson and then in 2006 landed Stephen Jackson and Frank Gore. The combinations were deadly, and I picked up my second back in the third round (Ricky Willaims) and sixth round (Frank Gore) those years. In 2002 my backup running back was also landed late - Travis Henry. That year I had 3 running backs go for over 1,400 yards and 10 TDs, not a small feat. And in 2006 my backup was none other than Chester Taylor, so again, I was blessed with three solid backs. In 2005 I pluked Thomas Jones out of the fray in the mid to late rounds and he produced a solid 1,335 yards and 9 TDs. Hopefully my track record speaks for itself and I can continue the trend this year - and help some of you to your championships. I will start with a few no brainer "sleepers" then move into the more risky for those looking to make a bigger splash.
Sleepers - 2008
Running Backs
Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - this is a guy that is on everyone's radar, and I'm sure a lot of ears will perk up during the preseason games when this guy touches the ball. If you want this not-so-tired - "sleeper" you better act fast (by round 3-5 I would look to be picking McFadden up). He could easily become this years Adrian Peterson - and who wanted to take a chance on a guy with Chester Taylor sitting atop the depth chart? This year, McFadden will have no problems unseating Justin Fargas for the majority of carries.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - do you believe in the hype? Do you believe in Matt Ryan? This is a touchy situation for me. I believe Turner has some staying ability, but I feel like it is a year or two (possibly three) too early. With all that is surrounding the Falcons offensively, I would pass on Turner - besides, he's price tag might be a bit too steep since he will be taken likely before the end of the third round in most cases.
Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - again, Barber is high on many fantasy footballer's radar. The kid is tough and runs hard. He certainly earns each yard he gains. However, much the same as Turner his price tag might be a stretch for the value added over the course of a full season with Barber as the full time running back. He will be taken as a second back in most cases, so unless you want to pass on running back in the first round and use your second rounder to score Barber as your number one running option, then he is a steal (leaving you to take a late round runner and use your first round pick for a top notch receiver or quarterback) - otherwise, I would also pass on Barber. As your number one runner he may be a stretch, so be sure you draft your other positions wisely.
Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - this was a guy I liked last year as a major deep sleeper, however, he didn't quite pan out as such (his numbers were impressive but he was stung by the injury bug). This year, he is likely to last until round four or five since most will be looking at Jacobs as nothing more than a backup, but when healthy, Jacobs can do some major damage given his size and speed. I like him in the fifth round as my number two - but beware, you may need a handcuff to ensure you don't lose production if he proves to be less than durable, as he did last year.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - as I said in my quarterback sleepers, the Bills offense is poised to take off this year, but if that's going to happen, they'll need Lynch to continuously move the chains. Last season Lynch provided 85 yards per game - and he shows no signs that those numbers were a fluke - add in 8-10 TDs this year with the improved offense, and you have recipe for success. Lynch may go fast considering his tremendous upside, but he could last until the third round - but he would provide an excellent number one option if taken in the second (as with Marion Barber above).
Deep sleepers - and judging by the lists, it looks short this year. As with every season, the running back position is still a prime position, and these guy may even find their way off the board early, but I will do my best to give a realistic portrayal of when they will be selected.
Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - coming off the injury that sidelined him for the better part of last year, he will be a forgotten man. Add in the emergence of Earnest Graham - who will likely be the first Buc's running back selected - and the reintroduction of Warrick Dunn in Tampa, and Cadillac has fallen on all draft boards. I believe he still has the tools to regain his number one spot on the depth chart, and he could fall as far as round 8 or later - provided someone does not wish to handcuff Graham. At this late stage, Williams might provide the best value - albeit a risky one. With great risk comes great reward.
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - the Bears running back position hasn't had a legitimate threat since the team traded away the rights to Thomas Jones, however, with the departure of Cedric Benson, Forte steps into a role he may simply thrive in. Forte is a tough runner with good speed, and should easily win the starting role - provided he can pick up the blitz - over Kevin Jones, formerly of the Detroit Lions. Forte will likely fall since Chicago's offense as a whole will be all but forgotten in most drafts. I can see Forte being a strong number two back and being available in round 5 or later. I might jump the gun on Forte and pick him in round four if I'm betting on him being my number two (if I have only have one back drafted at that point). Look for Forte to gain about 1,200 yards with 6-8 TDs - not stellar numbers, but they will improve as the season progresses and he grows more comfortable with his role - still not bad for a 5th rounder.
Thomas Jones, New York Jets - Jones has never been a sexy pick, but he is always consistent. Keep a close eye on the Brett Favre situation, since Favre's precense can only spell good things for Jones. Look for him to come in in the 1,200-1,300 yard range with 5-9 TDs with or without Favre, and with those numbers is there any better value than someone being drafted likely in round 4 or 5? I didn't think so.
Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions - the Lions have been starved for a star running back since allowing Barry Sanders to retire on the eve of training camp in July 1999 - and Kevin Smith might finally be the one to ease the void left behind. Smith has size and speed and could be provided with lots of running room considereing the wide receivers on this team keeping the safties honest. Smith almost broke Barry Sander's single-season rushing record in college at UCF, and he could be looking to fill Barry's shoes in similar fashion in the NFL. Provided the receivers stay healthy, Smith could be in for great things. Look to nab Smith between rounds 4-6 - if he goes earlier than that, I'd be surprised - that, and you likely have someone jumping the gun or that is a Lions fan. No matter where he is draft Smith will provide solid numbers all year long - look for 70-75 YPG and 6-8 TDs.
Tomorrow - wide recievers
Sleepers - 2008
Running Backs
Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders - this is a guy that is on everyone's radar, and I'm sure a lot of ears will perk up during the preseason games when this guy touches the ball. If you want this not-so-tired - "sleeper" you better act fast (by round 3-5 I would look to be picking McFadden up). He could easily become this years Adrian Peterson - and who wanted to take a chance on a guy with Chester Taylor sitting atop the depth chart? This year, McFadden will have no problems unseating Justin Fargas for the majority of carries.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - do you believe in the hype? Do you believe in Matt Ryan? This is a touchy situation for me. I believe Turner has some staying ability, but I feel like it is a year or two (possibly three) too early. With all that is surrounding the Falcons offensively, I would pass on Turner - besides, he's price tag might be a bit too steep since he will be taken likely before the end of the third round in most cases.
Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - again, Barber is high on many fantasy footballer's radar. The kid is tough and runs hard. He certainly earns each yard he gains. However, much the same as Turner his price tag might be a stretch for the value added over the course of a full season with Barber as the full time running back. He will be taken as a second back in most cases, so unless you want to pass on running back in the first round and use your second rounder to score Barber as your number one running option, then he is a steal (leaving you to take a late round runner and use your first round pick for a top notch receiver or quarterback) - otherwise, I would also pass on Barber. As your number one runner he may be a stretch, so be sure you draft your other positions wisely.
Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - this was a guy I liked last year as a major deep sleeper, however, he didn't quite pan out as such (his numbers were impressive but he was stung by the injury bug). This year, he is likely to last until round four or five since most will be looking at Jacobs as nothing more than a backup, but when healthy, Jacobs can do some major damage given his size and speed. I like him in the fifth round as my number two - but beware, you may need a handcuff to ensure you don't lose production if he proves to be less than durable, as he did last year.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - as I said in my quarterback sleepers, the Bills offense is poised to take off this year, but if that's going to happen, they'll need Lynch to continuously move the chains. Last season Lynch provided 85 yards per game - and he shows no signs that those numbers were a fluke - add in 8-10 TDs this year with the improved offense, and you have recipe for success. Lynch may go fast considering his tremendous upside, but he could last until the third round - but he would provide an excellent number one option if taken in the second (as with Marion Barber above).
Deep sleepers - and judging by the lists, it looks short this year. As with every season, the running back position is still a prime position, and these guy may even find their way off the board early, but I will do my best to give a realistic portrayal of when they will be selected.
Carnell "Cadillac" Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - coming off the injury that sidelined him for the better part of last year, he will be a forgotten man. Add in the emergence of Earnest Graham - who will likely be the first Buc's running back selected - and the reintroduction of Warrick Dunn in Tampa, and Cadillac has fallen on all draft boards. I believe he still has the tools to regain his number one spot on the depth chart, and he could fall as far as round 8 or later - provided someone does not wish to handcuff Graham. At this late stage, Williams might provide the best value - albeit a risky one. With great risk comes great reward.
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - the Bears running back position hasn't had a legitimate threat since the team traded away the rights to Thomas Jones, however, with the departure of Cedric Benson, Forte steps into a role he may simply thrive in. Forte is a tough runner with good speed, and should easily win the starting role - provided he can pick up the blitz - over Kevin Jones, formerly of the Detroit Lions. Forte will likely fall since Chicago's offense as a whole will be all but forgotten in most drafts. I can see Forte being a strong number two back and being available in round 5 or later. I might jump the gun on Forte and pick him in round four if I'm betting on him being my number two (if I have only have one back drafted at that point). Look for Forte to gain about 1,200 yards with 6-8 TDs - not stellar numbers, but they will improve as the season progresses and he grows more comfortable with his role - still not bad for a 5th rounder.
Thomas Jones, New York Jets - Jones has never been a sexy pick, but he is always consistent. Keep a close eye on the Brett Favre situation, since Favre's precense can only spell good things for Jones. Look for him to come in in the 1,200-1,300 yard range with 5-9 TDs with or without Favre, and with those numbers is there any better value than someone being drafted likely in round 4 or 5? I didn't think so.
Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions - the Lions have been starved for a star running back since allowing Barry Sanders to retire on the eve of training camp in July 1999 - and Kevin Smith might finally be the one to ease the void left behind. Smith has size and speed and could be provided with lots of running room considereing the wide receivers on this team keeping the safties honest. Smith almost broke Barry Sander's single-season rushing record in college at UCF, and he could be looking to fill Barry's shoes in similar fashion in the NFL. Provided the receivers stay healthy, Smith could be in for great things. Look to nab Smith between rounds 4-6 - if he goes earlier than that, I'd be surprised - that, and you likely have someone jumping the gun or that is a Lions fan. No matter where he is draft Smith will provide solid numbers all year long - look for 70-75 YPG and 6-8 TDs.
Tomorrow - wide recievers
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