Due to the sheer magnitude of quarterbacks in the league, it should be fairly easy to pick up a middle of the road QB in the middle rounds, but the real test is in finding this years Derek Anderson - which of course is not an easy task. Quarterbacks in the NFL don't tend to come out of nowhere; there are signs all over the place about the team and why their QB will succeed.
You can cite Kurt Warner of years passed as having "come out of nowhere" but the "greatest show" nucleous was already present, and Trent Green was on a lot of fantasy footballer's minds before his injury. If we knew more about Kurt Warner as a player, he wouldn't have fallen so far. Same thing with Derek Anderson last year - with a healthy Kellen Winslow, Jr. and a developing Braylon Edwards - success by a Cleveland QB should not have surpised anyone (the fact that Derek Anderson ultimately won the job after week one is the surprise here). So this year, I try to use this formal when predicting my quarterback sleepers.
2008 - top fantasy sleepers:
Quaterbacks
Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills - those willing to take a chance on this kid can get an excellent return on investment considering he won't be selected until between rounds 8 and 12 - Buffalo's offense is set to take off with the likes of running back - Marshawn Lynch, wide receivers: Evans, Parrish, and new comer James Hardy. Consider that Edwards is your best bet to be running that show, and the fact that the defense is suspect, and you hope to see Edwards airing it out late in the game.
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - Schaub was on everyone's radar last year, but he faltered due to injuries (both his own and those of his teammates - see Andre Johnson), so this year he will fall slightly of off most radars. He is likely the type of guy you'd want to target between rounds 6 and 9. Schaub and afroementioned Andre Johnson clicked in games they played together last year, and if they can put that together for a full season then they are both in for a special year - barring any injuries.
Other Quarterbacks to keep an eye on:
Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears - he suffered last year, and has been struggling since starting strong in 2006 - a depleted wide receiver corp has got to be worrisome - might be worth a last round flier though if he has developed enough mentally.
JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders - struggled in limited action last year after a lengthy holdout - will he be able to make up for that time missed by being in training camp this year? Only time will tell, one thing is clear, the Raiders have some offensive talent - if only at running back. Russell should go in the late rounds - probably as a backup until he stands on his own two feet.
Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins - if you believe the hype (it's echoing as if falls between the cliffs) then Campbell is still a future star. If you believe the hype, he is worth a late round pick. Otherwise, I'd stay far away from him. Given his track record, he could be primed to break out, but he likely won't. The fact still remains, however, the Redskins do have some talent on offense in Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Campbell's favorite, Chris Cooley.
Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions - how can a guy that has thrown for over 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons be considered a sleeper? It's easy, when you are on the Detroit Lions. Kitna still throws too many interceptions trying to make things happen with his young receivers, but those receivers are exactly that, young. Another season under the belt of Calvin Johnson and a healthy Roy Williams could spell trouble for opposing defenses, and Kitna has just the arm strength to get them both the ball early and often. Throw in a rejuvenated running game with Kevin Smith at that helm, and you have an offense primed to take off. Look to pick up Kitna between rounds 6 and 8 - if you are feeling lucky, hang on until the tenth round or later, but don't be surprised if he flies off the board before that.
Look for running back sleepers soon.
You can cite Kurt Warner of years passed as having "come out of nowhere" but the "greatest show" nucleous was already present, and Trent Green was on a lot of fantasy footballer's minds before his injury. If we knew more about Kurt Warner as a player, he wouldn't have fallen so far. Same thing with Derek Anderson last year - with a healthy Kellen Winslow, Jr. and a developing Braylon Edwards - success by a Cleveland QB should not have surpised anyone (the fact that Derek Anderson ultimately won the job after week one is the surprise here). So this year, I try to use this formal when predicting my quarterback sleepers.
2008 - top fantasy sleepers:
Quaterbacks
Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills - those willing to take a chance on this kid can get an excellent return on investment considering he won't be selected until between rounds 8 and 12 - Buffalo's offense is set to take off with the likes of running back - Marshawn Lynch, wide receivers: Evans, Parrish, and new comer James Hardy. Consider that Edwards is your best bet to be running that show, and the fact that the defense is suspect, and you hope to see Edwards airing it out late in the game.
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - Schaub was on everyone's radar last year, but he faltered due to injuries (both his own and those of his teammates - see Andre Johnson), so this year he will fall slightly of off most radars. He is likely the type of guy you'd want to target between rounds 6 and 9. Schaub and afroementioned Andre Johnson clicked in games they played together last year, and if they can put that together for a full season then they are both in for a special year - barring any injuries.
Other Quarterbacks to keep an eye on:
Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears - he suffered last year, and has been struggling since starting strong in 2006 - a depleted wide receiver corp has got to be worrisome - might be worth a last round flier though if he has developed enough mentally.
JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders - struggled in limited action last year after a lengthy holdout - will he be able to make up for that time missed by being in training camp this year? Only time will tell, one thing is clear, the Raiders have some offensive talent - if only at running back. Russell should go in the late rounds - probably as a backup until he stands on his own two feet.
Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins - if you believe the hype (it's echoing as if falls between the cliffs) then Campbell is still a future star. If you believe the hype, he is worth a late round pick. Otherwise, I'd stay far away from him. Given his track record, he could be primed to break out, but he likely won't. The fact still remains, however, the Redskins do have some talent on offense in Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Campbell's favorite, Chris Cooley.
Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions - how can a guy that has thrown for over 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons be considered a sleeper? It's easy, when you are on the Detroit Lions. Kitna still throws too many interceptions trying to make things happen with his young receivers, but those receivers are exactly that, young. Another season under the belt of Calvin Johnson and a healthy Roy Williams could spell trouble for opposing defenses, and Kitna has just the arm strength to get them both the ball early and often. Throw in a rejuvenated running game with Kevin Smith at that helm, and you have an offense primed to take off. Look to pick up Kitna between rounds 6 and 8 - if you are feeling lucky, hang on until the tenth round or later, but don't be surprised if he flies off the board before that.
Look for running back sleepers soon.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment