As promised:
Wide receivers are harder to diagnose than other positions. The rule of thumbs for top wide outs is that they will break out in their third year - but this may or may not be true. Many a wide receiver has failed to break out in the third year or ever, and some have broken out long before their third season. With that said, I do not have any rookie wideouts on my list, and most are hovering around the third season mark, but let's move on to it:
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - an excellent receiver with all the tools you look for. He is coming off his first full season and should quickly improve over his numbers from last year. His time with Jon Kitna will only help in his vast improvement. Watch for some cannibolism from his teammate and fellow sleeper candidate - Roy Williams - but expect Calvin to easily cath 75 balls for 1,100 yards and 6-9 TDs. Given his tramendous potential, Calvin may go early, but try to hold off and draft him accordingly - between rounds 4 and 6 he should be off most boards.
Roy Williams, Detroit Lions - since speaking of Lions wideouts, why not move directly to Calvin's counterpart? Roy Williams was in and out of the lineup last year, but he still managed to average almost 70 yards per game. People will forget about Williams with the emergence of Calvin Johnson, but at this point in his young career, Roy is already a veteran, and two years ago he put together some impressive numbers. Same rules apply here - watch for Calvin to take some of his gusto, and expect Roy to finish slightly down from his high marks in 2006 - I'd expect him to come in between 65-70 receptions with 1,000 yards and likely 8-10 TDs to his name. Look to pick up Roy in the middle rounds, 6-9.
Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - this is a classic example of a wide receiver coming into his third season with everyone expecting a breakout performance, and the jury is still out on this one. Holmes has blazing speed, but he lacks height that Ben Roethlisberger really wants. However, Holmes has played two full seasons in one offense, with the same QB (Ben Roethlisberger) which seems to be a luxury for today's young stars in the making. The experts expect Holmes to improve on his 70 YPG and 8 TDs of a year ago - I expect his numbers to hover right around that mark, but if he's available in the middle rounds (7-10), he would be a great addition to any team. Just remember, Hines Ward will take a lot of catches away from Holmes.
Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - this was one of the guys that fell off the third year breakout bus last season, however, for all the tools he possesses, he should make up for it in his fourth campaign. At 6 foot 5 inches Jackson is a huge target that runs well - probably needing to improve his route running - and has solid hands. Given the other weapons the Chargers present, Jackson could very well be a forgotten man, and he should benefit from this scenario - as he did in the playoffs last season with 18 receptions, 300 yards, and 2 TDs in the Chargers' 3 playoff games. Expect that trend to continue, and expect Jackson to nab 65 balls for 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs, but expect Jackson to fall on most boards, but not too far. Round 5 I'd start thinking about pluking him, but depending on how the draft is flowing (and what other WRs are still on the board) I would try to hold off until rounds 7-9.
All the other WRs on most sleepers lists don't impress me much. Sidney Rice has all the tools, and I will not deny him that, but he is still a season or two too soon, and given the QB situation (and RB situation) in Minnesota, Rice will not put up impressive enough numbers to warrant any consideration. Also, another player that has been on the "sleeper" list seemingly for the past 4 seasons is D.J. Hackett (I have never been impressed, and remain unimpressed). I feel as if his name says it all - "Hack"-ett . . . and that will continue. He might find some success with the Panthers, but Hackett is oft beaten by the injury bug, as are the Panthers players in general - they seem like a good fit, and I predict Hackett will play only 5-7 games - which equates to little value.
That wraps up my sleepers. I will be editing these posts as other players move into my radar.
Wide receivers are harder to diagnose than other positions. The rule of thumbs for top wide outs is that they will break out in their third year - but this may or may not be true. Many a wide receiver has failed to break out in the third year or ever, and some have broken out long before their third season. With that said, I do not have any rookie wideouts on my list, and most are hovering around the third season mark, but let's move on to it:
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - an excellent receiver with all the tools you look for. He is coming off his first full season and should quickly improve over his numbers from last year. His time with Jon Kitna will only help in his vast improvement. Watch for some cannibolism from his teammate and fellow sleeper candidate - Roy Williams - but expect Calvin to easily cath 75 balls for 1,100 yards and 6-9 TDs. Given his tramendous potential, Calvin may go early, but try to hold off and draft him accordingly - between rounds 4 and 6 he should be off most boards.
Roy Williams, Detroit Lions - since speaking of Lions wideouts, why not move directly to Calvin's counterpart? Roy Williams was in and out of the lineup last year, but he still managed to average almost 70 yards per game. People will forget about Williams with the emergence of Calvin Johnson, but at this point in his young career, Roy is already a veteran, and two years ago he put together some impressive numbers. Same rules apply here - watch for Calvin to take some of his gusto, and expect Roy to finish slightly down from his high marks in 2006 - I'd expect him to come in between 65-70 receptions with 1,000 yards and likely 8-10 TDs to his name. Look to pick up Roy in the middle rounds, 6-9.
Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - this is a classic example of a wide receiver coming into his third season with everyone expecting a breakout performance, and the jury is still out on this one. Holmes has blazing speed, but he lacks height that Ben Roethlisberger really wants. However, Holmes has played two full seasons in one offense, with the same QB (Ben Roethlisberger) which seems to be a luxury for today's young stars in the making. The experts expect Holmes to improve on his 70 YPG and 8 TDs of a year ago - I expect his numbers to hover right around that mark, but if he's available in the middle rounds (7-10), he would be a great addition to any team. Just remember, Hines Ward will take a lot of catches away from Holmes.
Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - this was one of the guys that fell off the third year breakout bus last season, however, for all the tools he possesses, he should make up for it in his fourth campaign. At 6 foot 5 inches Jackson is a huge target that runs well - probably needing to improve his route running - and has solid hands. Given the other weapons the Chargers present, Jackson could very well be a forgotten man, and he should benefit from this scenario - as he did in the playoffs last season with 18 receptions, 300 yards, and 2 TDs in the Chargers' 3 playoff games. Expect that trend to continue, and expect Jackson to nab 65 balls for 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs, but expect Jackson to fall on most boards, but not too far. Round 5 I'd start thinking about pluking him, but depending on how the draft is flowing (and what other WRs are still on the board) I would try to hold off until rounds 7-9.
All the other WRs on most sleepers lists don't impress me much. Sidney Rice has all the tools, and I will not deny him that, but he is still a season or two too soon, and given the QB situation (and RB situation) in Minnesota, Rice will not put up impressive enough numbers to warrant any consideration. Also, another player that has been on the "sleeper" list seemingly for the past 4 seasons is D.J. Hackett (I have never been impressed, and remain unimpressed). I feel as if his name says it all - "Hack"-ett . . . and that will continue. He might find some success with the Panthers, but Hackett is oft beaten by the injury bug, as are the Panthers players in general - they seem like a good fit, and I predict Hackett will play only 5-7 games - which equates to little value.
That wraps up my sleepers. I will be editing these posts as other players move into my radar.
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