Tuesday, September 23, 2008

3 Weeks in the Books

So three weeks are down, and everyone is still very much alive in the realm of fantasy football, but who is playing well, and who should you bench? Well, we all know that depends on your team and your strategy, and sometimes, there comes a time when even a first round pick needs to be benched. Let's not push the panic button just yet, but remember, that is always an option, even if it is a hard one to swallow.

Here is a look at the guys that have been successful, as well as those that are lagging behind through the first three weeks of the season:

Quarterbacks:

3 Positives

Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos - Cutler has been quite impressive thus far this season, and given his likely draft position has been a pleasant surprise for many owners. The Broncos have put up 41, 39, and 34 points in their 3 games this year, and Cutler has been a big part of that success and he is second in the NFL in touchtown tosses at 8. However, keep in mind that those three games were against the Raiders, the Chargers, and the Saints - not exactly three teams lighting it up on defense this season. But Cutler remains a good start every week - and as long as he keeps finding Brandon Marshall, he'll be just fine.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - like Cutler, Rivers has been quite impressive thus far. He has thrown 3 touchdowns in each game that he has played (currently leading the league with 9) with over 217 yards per contest (including a 377 yard performance against Denver in week 2). Rivers is young, and like Cutler as well, has matured very well in the Chargers system. He will remain being a good option for fantasy owners considering all the talent around him - when Tomlinson returns to good health, expect Rivers to benefit even further.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - I looked for a suitable quarterback to include on my list of top 3 of the first 3 weeks, and I landed upon Romo. Romo is a quarterback I like a lot, and I tried to make a case for Donovan McNabb here (someone I had said would be a bust) but I found Romo to have one thing McNabb does not - consistency. And I don't necessarily mean consistency on a down to down basis, but more on a total game basis. Romo has thrown over 260 yards in all three games he has played - topping 300 twice already, and he has thrown a touchdown in each game - as has McNabb; both men have tossed 5 on the season. Romo, however, has the more consistency in passing yardage and thus gets my nod here - McNabb's numbers have slipped from week one.

3 Negatives

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals - has there been a bigger disappointment in starting quarterback thus far this season? Palmer is a quarterback that has completed over 64% of his passes coming into this season, but has been struggling to complete 57% this year. He has thrown for over 3,800 yards each of the past 3 seasons - topping 4,000 yards twice, but this year is on pace for only 2,700 yards. His touchdowns the past three seasons: 32, 28, and 26 - this season, ONE. It's safe to say Palmer has disappointed and frustrated fantasy owners causing each week to be a struggle when setting their starting lineup. It seems to me that the Bengals are a train wreck, and thus, it would seem to be in the better interest of fantasy owner's sanity to find another option - Palmer clearly isn't getting it done. This week could be the week, but then again, it might not be - and there has to be a quarterback more worthy of your time.

Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns - Anderson is a close second to the torturous season that Palmer is having. Thus far, Anderson has completed a paltry 46% of his passes for a mere 405 yards and 2 touchdowns. Given his success of a season ago (where he threw for 3,787 yards and 29 TDs) his numbers are obviously not living up to last years hype. Now, Romeo Crennel says he is prepared to evaluate his quarterback position, and we just might see Brady Quinn sooner rather than later. It seems Derek Anderson's ship has sunk - at least for now. Perhaps he was never quite as good as he lead people to believe last year, but this much is clear, in the realm of fantasy football, Anderson has been a major let down through three weeks (and if Crennel makes the change, possibly the season).

Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings - this one isn't likely to be a season breaker for most owners, but I did have Tavaris on my sleepers list at quarterback and all he has done is lose his starting job. Jackson played the first two games, producing an 0-2 record to show for his 308 yards passing with only 1 TD. He seemed to lack confidence in making his reads and execution in his throws. For these reasons Brad Childress was forced to make the move to Freotte - in order to save the Vikings season. At least for one week this strategy paid off, for those owners of Jackson, however, it seems to have been a wasted draft pick.

Running Backs

3 Positives

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - it's hard to argue with the success. Turner currently leads the NFL in rushing yards and is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns. However, if I were to argue against the success, I would say Turner has had his big games against teams with less than stellar defenses. But still, hard to argue with a man who has 1 200 yard game and 2 100 yard games in the first three weeks. Keep him in your lineup until he seems run into the ground - otherwise, keep putting him in your lineup and hope the Falcons keep feeding him the ball.

Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - he was given the starting job after the departure of Julius Jones and he has hit the ground running (was there any doubt that he wouldn't?). Through 3 games Barber has only surpassed 100 yards once (a 142 yard performance against Green Bay on Sunday night), but that is of little concern to Barber owners since Barber has had at least one touchdown in each game (and 2 touchdowns in two of the three). Barber is a touchdown machine, and this should not change as the season progresses. Even with Felix Jones taking some of Barber's carries, it shouldn't worry owners because all that means is Barber will be fresher longer - and that is a scary thought for opposing defenses.

Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks - if we are going to talk about positive influences in the realm of fantasy football leagues, then we have to go deep into most drafts and locate Julius Jones. Jones was all but a forgotten man last season on Dallas, but the move to the northwest has really seemed to inspire Jones, who is running with purpose in Seattle. He is second in the league in rushing yards (312) and though he lacks a big presence in the passing game, he has come out of nowhere to have two straight 100 yard performances, and that has to count for something. Jones may drop off as the season progresses, but for now, he looks like a good start - if only he can upend the big name players at the running back position on most fantasy rosters.

3 Negatives

Stephen Jackson, St. Louis Rams - is there any other choice for this dubious category? Through 3 games Jackson has zero touchdowns and only 159 yards on the ground. He does have 133 yards receiving - most of that coming on a 50 yard pass play against Seattle. He has been a far cry from what everyone expects out of him - and given his new, big contract, he has certainly been a far cry from what the executives in St. Louis had expected. Jackson, even if you drafted him in the first round, might be better served as a spot starter against teams with weaker defenses - granted, his first three games have been against the Eagles, the Giants, and the aforementioned 'Hawks - but who among us really doesn't expect a great runner to produce no matter who the opponent? Given the criteria for greatness, Jackson remains far from it.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - again, using the criteria of where the player was likely drafted and given their play thus far, Addai has to be on this list. He has averaged a lackluster 3.3 yards per carry through three, and he desperately needs the Colts offensive line to heal. Addai had his best game Sunday against Jacksonville, but overall, he isn't adding up - Addai has run for only 142 yards (add 26 to that through the air) and as a number one fantasy back, you would hope to receive that yardage total in one game. Addai has scored 3 touchdowns, but two of them came against Jacksonville. If he can't turn this around, Addai might be one you want to look to replace - it might not be time to push that panic button yet, but keep your hand close.

Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - I know, I know, he had a huge game against New England this past weekend, but this isn't about who has had the biggest single game, but who has been producing overall - in regard to the expected value of that player. I truly thought Brown was going to rebound this year after his injury last year, and so far, he has disappointed. In the first two games of the year he has had 23 and 25 yards, respectively and one touchdown. Hardly the numbers I would expect out of a second round pick (which is where I figured Brown would find himself). The fact that Ricky Williams (who could have been one of the three negatives as well, but since his draft stock was not as high, I chose to leave him off the list) is getting half of the carries, and perhaps Brown's big days are going to remain being sparse. Too bad too, because I still think Brown has all the talent in the world given the right opportunity.

Wide Receivers

3 Positives

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - I had mentioned (merely in passing) that Jennings might not find success with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, however, through 3 games I have been proven wrong. Jennings has yet to find the end zone, and for that reason, one could make the argument that he should not be on this list, however, he has had over 91 yards each of the first three weeks (including two 100 yard performances) and it seems finding the end zone will happen sooner rather than later. Given his current production, and the way Rodgers seems to have a rapport with him, I would keep Jennings in the lineup until something drastic happens - 19 catches and 373 yards is nothing to sneeze at through 3 weeks - the touchdowns are only a matter of time.

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - I considered leaving Marshall off of this list only because of the fact that he produced well last year, and wasn't really flying in under too many radars, but then again, this isn't about being a sleeper, but about production through 3 weeks (or in Marshall's case, 2 weeks). In his two games, Marshall has been spectacular - recording 166 and 155 yards in each game and producing a touchdown in each. If he continues this torrid pace, he will smash the receiving yards record - not to mention he has grabbed 24 balls in 2 games (capped by the 18 catches he had against San Diego); so if your league is points per reception, then Marshall is an obvious lock - but in any format, he'll fit in quite nicely.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - in my top busts of 2008 post, I mention Santana Moss, and all he has done thus far is prove me wrong. Moss is still inconsistent as far as his yardage totals are concerned, but he has scored a touchdown in each start. His reception total has been fairly consistent as well though, and if his catches can total 5-7 he has averaged this year, then eventually, in each game, you can wait for him to break one - given his blazing speed - if his reception total remains consistent, then Moss remains a solid start.

3 Negatives

Randy Moss, New England Patriots - obviously, this choice is due to the injury to Tom Brady, however, since no one saw the injury coming, Moss was likely a first round pick, and he is far from producing as such. Through 3 weeks Moss in 30th in the NFL in receiving yards and has only managed one touchdown reception. The past two weeks his receiving total has been 22 and 25 yards - and those two games were against teams without great defenses in the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. It seems unless the Patriots can figure something out, with either Cassel or a new quarterback, that Moss will continue to suffer, right along with millions of Moss fantasy football owners.

Roy Williams, Detroit Lions - again, in my sleeper list I was wrong (a full report card on sleepers will follow the season) so far this year. Roy Williams has had 47, 48, and 18 yards receiving in his three games - and only one touchdown to show for his efforts. For a team that has been playing from way behind all season, these numbers are utterly unacceptable - and even for a team that is competitive, Williams numbers are lacking. Either way, competitive or not, Williams in your lineup will not keep your team competitive. Until he can provide consistency (and actually numbers above 75 yards - consistency) then I would stay away from him. Yes, he has been consistent this year in keeping his numbers sub-50 yards per outing - hardly the consistency one would hope for.

Ocho Cinco, Cincinnati Bengals - Yes, I called him Ocho Cinco - for the simple reasoning that he did legally change his name, other than that, he'll forever be (and should have remained) Chad Johnson. Anyway, perhaps Mr. Cinco shouldn't have spent so much time in the offseason changing his name and more time on actually practicing. His numbers have not been anything more than what one would expect out of a mediocre tight end - 22, 37, and 29 yards in each of the first three games and zero touchdowns - I guess the question is, will he ever even reach his name in receiving yardage at all this year (and I mean ochenta y cinco - not this contrived "Ocho Cinco" he thinks means 85).

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Tom Brady

So Tom Brady is done for the year, and you had high hopes for him, but now that he is out, what are your options? Well, like the Patriots, you can either ride your current backup (you did draft a suitable backup, right?) or you can go fishing through current available quarterbacks, but who would be your best choice of those available? Well, depending on your league, you may have to go looking for a trade, or search through those quarterbacks still on the board - which are likely slim pickings. I'm going to take a look at a dozen quarterbacks that could potentially still be available and what you can expect from each - hopefully, this can give you some direction as to where to go from here:

1) Troy Smith, Baltimore Ravens - word out of Baltimore is that when Smith returns from an injury of his own, that he will take over the reigns to lead the Ravens' offense. This option doesn't seem very viable, in that you will surely be disappointed in the results.

2) Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears - chances are, he is still floating around in most leagues. What he will do for you is be consistent. He has shown flashes of things he is capable of - and he can put a nice touch on his passes. In a bind, Orton can be manageable, but you are looking at 2,500 yards passing on the year - and maybe 15-20 TDs - not very Brady-esque, but who really is?

3) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - it's possible Rodgers was drafted on Favre's coat-tails, but in the off-chance that he was not, he does warrant some consideration for the now Brady-less teams. Rodgers performed fairly well on Monday night against a decent Vikings defense. He pulled out the victory, though his numbers were far from spectacular. What he did prove on Monday is that maybe he does belong at the helm of the Packers offense. Is he a fantasy starter? Probably not - but again, if you are in a bind, he will do, for now - and he may surprise as well. Hard to tell what to expect since he has such limited NFL action under his belt.

4) Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings - again, Jackson should be available in most formats, but is he someone you want on your fantasy team? That depends. Jackson is very capable of having the big day, and he can score points with his legs, however, he can be very inconsistent, and one thing Brady was always able to provide was consistency - so do you pick up Jackson and roll the dice from week to week? Probably not - but if your backup is sufficient (the backup that has been thrust into your starting lineup with the Brady injury) - then Jackson might be worth your backup job now - in hopes that he flies high in your current starters' off-week.

5) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - the Falcons soared in week one against a very weak Detroit Lions defense. If there is one thing that stands out from that game, however, it's that the Falcons will look to run the ball. Ryan had a good game, yes, but A) it was against the poultry Lions defense, and B) with the running game working as well as it was, I would bet many a quarterback can find holes in the secondary. However, if you believe in this offense (of which I was skeptical of before seeing them week 1) then I would give this kid a chance. All the Falcons offensive players seem to have one thing in common, speed - and if Ryan can distribute the ball efficiently, he may just be in for a huge year - just don't expect it since its hard for a rookie quarterback to have much success in this league. Worthwhile consideration, and should do just fine in a pinch.

6) Chris Simms, Tennessee Titans - reports today say that Simms will sign with the Titans - and if Vince Young can't go, it seems Simms will get the playing time in Tennessee. There are a lot of question marks surrounding Simms, and therefore, I would stay away. Again, if you are running thin on options, Simms is worthy of consideration, but just remember, before rupturing his spleen in Tampa, his stats that season were unimpressive, and he hasn't seen any action since. This would be a hard sell to me, but desperate times could call for this as a desperate measure.

7) Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Garcia is the unquestioned starter in Tampa, but that doesn't mean he'll provide much value. Garcia's time has likely passed - and given the lethargic Tampa offense, I would stay away from him. However, it is possible he pulls a few good games out of the hat, and he should be consistent from week to week. Being that you might have been a former Brady owner, you might want that level of consistency, and Garcia can provide that - just don't expect his consistent numbers to fly off the page at you - expect 200 yards with 1-2 TD passes on a week to week basis - and all this assuming he remains healthy as well.

8) Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins - Pennington is similar to Garcia above. He won't give you the flashy, he'll win the game all on his own, games this year, but he should be a fairly consistent presence. He will provide similar number to that of Garcia, but he should be a healthier option. Of course, don't forget that Pennington has been stung by the injury bug throughout his career as well - that, and the Dolphins offense might not perform at a high level this year either. Probably best to stay away from Pennington as well - but again, in a pinch ...

9) Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - if Warner was not drafted he might be a good option for Brady-owners (or ex-Brady owners). The Cardinals still have the high profile receivers and Warner is smart enough to know how to get them the ball. Warner still has the potential to sling the ball around on a weekly basis - with lots of potential to "go off" in any given week. He might also get hurt, or Leinart could potentially retake the job - but for now, Warner would seem to be a good option - provided he is actually available. If not, you might be able to trade for Warner without being forced to give up too much of your starting lineup.

10) JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders - I would venture a guess that Russell is still available in most leagues - however, I would also tell you to stay away. The Raiders offense doesn't seem to have gotten better this off-season, and Russell is the driving force to that machine. If there aren't any other options, then I would hope you have a more suitable backup already in place. Don't give up on your season by starting Russell on a weekly basis - otherwise, you will be in for a very long, and unpleasant, fantasy football season.

11) J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers - Two words - Mike Martz. I realize Martz went to Detroit and seemed to falter - but his quarterback still threw for 4,000 yards. O'Sullivan won the job in San Francisco and he could potentially pay huge dividends. He is likely still available, and if the Martz-Magic pays off, so could O'Sullivan for his fantasy owners. Remember, Mike Martz is the guy that made a star (and league MVP) out of the unknown Kurt Warner - and O'Sullivan has been around the league for a few years, probably learning lots about reading defenses. O'Sullivan could be a high risk situation, but a very intriguing one as well - if you like risks, I would go for it, otherwise, stick with what is proven and what is consistent. Could be worth a backup position for your now Brady-less team though.

12) Matt Cassel, New England Patriots - or, after all is said and done, you can do what the Patriots seem to be doing - going to the backup. We know what the Patriots offense is capable of with the likes of Maroney, Welker, and Moss - and maybe, just maybe, Cassel can lead that offense. It may not be just as prolific as it would be lead by Brady, himself, but Cassel should be able to see to it that the offense doesn't stall - and that could prove beneficial to, not only the Patriots, but to the owners that are willing to take a chance on a guy that knows the system well and will be throwing to Moss on a weekly basis.

So there are the twelve men that could potentially be available in most leagues, while at the same time could provide some value. If the decision were mine to make (and assuming I didn't have a suitable backup to begin with) I think I would go out on a limb and pick up J.T. O'Sullivan, Matt Cassel, and Matt Ryan, although as I said, I do believe that Warner is a very viable option at this point - but I guess consider me a risk taker. To each their own, and I hope this helps provide you with some options you hadn't considered before. Just remember all is not lost on a fantasy team lacking Tom Brady - assuming you already have a stable core, all you need is to plug in a good enough quarterback to remain competitive. Good luck to all - and sorry for your early season misfortune.