So, who should be drafted in the first round? Is Tom Brady worthy of a top 5 pick? Is Peyton Manning? Where does Brian Westbrook make the grade? Is Tomlinson still the number 1 fantasy footballer out there? All these questions and more in my first annual top 10:
1) LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - It's hard to argue with success, and I won't do that here. His numbers were down from the previous season, but Tomlinson still provided his owner's with 18 total TDs and almost 2,000 yards of total offense. It seems you can expect at least numbers on par with this given Tomlinson's track record. He is also very durable, missing only 1 game in his 7 year career.
2) Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - This is a guy I have liked for years (and I hate the Eagles) and it seems he is finally getting the recognition he deserves for being such a dynamic player. He has been given more and more opportunities in recent seasons and I only expect this trend to continue. Look for Westbrook to easily surpass 2,000 total yards (for the second straight season) and score 12-15 TDs. Durability no longer seems to be an issue in regard to Westbrook.
3) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - What can you say about this guy? He has excellent vision and quick feet - once he has day-light he can hit the home run with his break away speed. A grip? Possibly his lack of receiving out of the back field, but it seems that was more of a coaching thing than a reflection of Peterson's ability. Peterson has tremendous upside value, but don't forget that Chester Taylor may still take away from his touches - most likely in the passing game. Look for Peterson to have 1,500 yards rushing, 150-200 receiving and 15 TDs.
4) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Don't get me wrong, I don't have a problem with picking running back, running back in rounds one and two - but the value added for the other top running backs vs. Brady here is not an even trade off. Brady lost Donte Stallworth in the off-season, but he retained Welker and Moss - and those were the driving forces to Tom's record setting performance. Look for Brady to near his totals of last season with over 4,000 yards and 40 TD tosses.
5) Stephen Jackson, St. Louis Rams - His numbers took a nose dive last year, but I look for him to rebound. If Bulger stays healthy, Jackson's receiving totals should push back into the 500-600 yard range. As for his rushing totals, I look for him to receive more carries and push the pile hard given his large frame - look for 1,300 yards rushing out of him. He also has the size to be a scoring machine near the goal line, for this reason, I expect a dozen TDs out of him.
6) Randy Moss, New England Patriots - Sure, who wants to pick a WR with the 6th pick, I get that, but just like Brady at 4, the value added with Moss is far too great to ignore given the remaining field. Moss is far and away the best receiver in the game (my apologizes to Terrell Owens) playing on the best team in the NFL (and my apologizes to the Cowboys), and he is the best run away talent at any position. For this reason, Moss makes this list - he should near his totals of last year - look for 1,400 yards with 15-18 TD receptions.
7) Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - The time will soon come when Manning to Harrison is no longer the staple of the Colts offense, and when that time comes Addai will step in to pick up the pieces. Addai has everything you could ever want in an every down back in the NFL: good feet, blitz recognition, good hands, and toughness. Oh yeah, he's a pretty good runner as well. Taking all that into consideration, and provided that the Colts wideouts might soon become depleted, I look for Addai to rack up around 1,500-1,700 total yards with about a dozen touchdowns.
8) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Here the field becomes muddled and you can make arguments for a multitude of players, but I have to go with Frank Gore. Granted, much like Jackson above, he had a down year last season - but that should change this year. Gore has the speed and strength you look for in a number 1 back. He also has excellent hands and should catch his share of balls in the passing game. I look for Gore to secure 1,600-1,700 total yards and 10-12 total touchdowns.
9) Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Believe me, I know what the naysayers will say here - he is coming off a major injury and the Dolphins have no passing game - which I retort - that is exactly why I pick him. I feel he will fight through the injury and return to form - given that the Dolphins do not have a passing game, it simply means more touches all the way around for Brown. If he remains healthy (be sure to check his status throughout the preseason to ensure no ill-effects are shown when cutting) Brown should come in at 1,500-1,700 total yards with 10-12 TDs.
10) Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He came on strong last year when he saw significant playing time, and his numbers did not decline in the playoffs. He is a strong talent and he should not disappoint this year, if Aaron Rodgers can provide enough relief in the passing game. Rodgers will not be mistaken for Favre any time soon and Grant could suffer for it. However, given his raw talent and breakaway speed, I still would put Grant down for 1,500 total yards and 9-11 TDs.
Honorable Mentions:
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - I'll be honest, I can't stand the way the media puts this guy on a pedistal, but I have to admit, he is a rare talent throwing the football. If Harrison can remain healthy (and out of off the field trouble - sounds weird to hear and say) then Manning should easily surpass 35 touchdown passes, and 4,000 yards or more is a given with this guy, considering he has accomplished that feat for 8 of the past 9 years running (his only miss was a 3,747 yard showing in 2005).
Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - When was the last time a Chiefs running back was not drafted in the top 3, let alone the first round? It seems like a long time, but this is the season that has too many question marks surrounding the Chiefs' back. First of all, Johnson has endured a lot of carries in a short time leading up to his injury that sidelined him last year - is that a sign of things to come, or a mere fluke? If Johnson can remain healthy he is just as dynamic as anyone and can provide a great steal in the late first; early second round - that is, IF he can stay healthy. The Chiefs like to run the ball, and Johnson likes to carry it - but does he have enough left in the tank? Only time will tell, but I'll pencil a healthy Larry Johnson in for 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns.
Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - I put Barber in as a sleeper in terms of number one running back if taken in late round two or round three, but it seems he might actually be taken earlier than that. He runs hard, but the question remains if he can carry the load for a full season - how many of those punishing blows he delievers will leave him battered and bruised? Will it add up over the full season? Still, he has first round potential and does require first round consideration and should gain close to 1,200 total yards and a 12-15 TDs.
Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens - If the Ravens ever figure out the passing game, which they seem to be trying to do since their inception, McGahee will have loads of room to run. Even still, with limited room and teams stacking the box, McGahee still manages to be a solid producers and his numbers - given the scarcity of the running back position - warrant first round consideration as well. He should gain over 1,100 yards rushing - throw in another hundred or so yards receiving and 5-8 TDs.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch was also on my sleeper list for running backs, but I don't think he'll honestly last. He will be a tremendous resource no matter when drafted, even if in the first round. If he stays healthy and the Bills passing game improves (as it should, at least on paper) then look for Lynch to have more holes than he did last year. That can only lead to improved rushing totals, and hopefully more goal line touches. I figured Lynch will have about 1,200 total yards and a half dozen TDs rushing the ball - but this numbers could skyrocket if the passing game pans out as it should. The sky is the limit with Marshawn.
1) LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - It's hard to argue with success, and I won't do that here. His numbers were down from the previous season, but Tomlinson still provided his owner's with 18 total TDs and almost 2,000 yards of total offense. It seems you can expect at least numbers on par with this given Tomlinson's track record. He is also very durable, missing only 1 game in his 7 year career.
2) Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles - This is a guy I have liked for years (and I hate the Eagles) and it seems he is finally getting the recognition he deserves for being such a dynamic player. He has been given more and more opportunities in recent seasons and I only expect this trend to continue. Look for Westbrook to easily surpass 2,000 total yards (for the second straight season) and score 12-15 TDs. Durability no longer seems to be an issue in regard to Westbrook.
3) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings - What can you say about this guy? He has excellent vision and quick feet - once he has day-light he can hit the home run with his break away speed. A grip? Possibly his lack of receiving out of the back field, but it seems that was more of a coaching thing than a reflection of Peterson's ability. Peterson has tremendous upside value, but don't forget that Chester Taylor may still take away from his touches - most likely in the passing game. Look for Peterson to have 1,500 yards rushing, 150-200 receiving and 15 TDs.
4) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Don't get me wrong, I don't have a problem with picking running back, running back in rounds one and two - but the value added for the other top running backs vs. Brady here is not an even trade off. Brady lost Donte Stallworth in the off-season, but he retained Welker and Moss - and those were the driving forces to Tom's record setting performance. Look for Brady to near his totals of last season with over 4,000 yards and 40 TD tosses.
5) Stephen Jackson, St. Louis Rams - His numbers took a nose dive last year, but I look for him to rebound. If Bulger stays healthy, Jackson's receiving totals should push back into the 500-600 yard range. As for his rushing totals, I look for him to receive more carries and push the pile hard given his large frame - look for 1,300 yards rushing out of him. He also has the size to be a scoring machine near the goal line, for this reason, I expect a dozen TDs out of him.
6) Randy Moss, New England Patriots - Sure, who wants to pick a WR with the 6th pick, I get that, but just like Brady at 4, the value added with Moss is far too great to ignore given the remaining field. Moss is far and away the best receiver in the game (my apologizes to Terrell Owens) playing on the best team in the NFL (and my apologizes to the Cowboys), and he is the best run away talent at any position. For this reason, Moss makes this list - he should near his totals of last year - look for 1,400 yards with 15-18 TD receptions.
7) Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts - The time will soon come when Manning to Harrison is no longer the staple of the Colts offense, and when that time comes Addai will step in to pick up the pieces. Addai has everything you could ever want in an every down back in the NFL: good feet, blitz recognition, good hands, and toughness. Oh yeah, he's a pretty good runner as well. Taking all that into consideration, and provided that the Colts wideouts might soon become depleted, I look for Addai to rack up around 1,500-1,700 total yards with about a dozen touchdowns.
8) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers - Here the field becomes muddled and you can make arguments for a multitude of players, but I have to go with Frank Gore. Granted, much like Jackson above, he had a down year last season - but that should change this year. Gore has the speed and strength you look for in a number 1 back. He also has excellent hands and should catch his share of balls in the passing game. I look for Gore to secure 1,600-1,700 total yards and 10-12 total touchdowns.
9) Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins - Believe me, I know what the naysayers will say here - he is coming off a major injury and the Dolphins have no passing game - which I retort - that is exactly why I pick him. I feel he will fight through the injury and return to form - given that the Dolphins do not have a passing game, it simply means more touches all the way around for Brown. If he remains healthy (be sure to check his status throughout the preseason to ensure no ill-effects are shown when cutting) Brown should come in at 1,500-1,700 total yards with 10-12 TDs.
10) Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He came on strong last year when he saw significant playing time, and his numbers did not decline in the playoffs. He is a strong talent and he should not disappoint this year, if Aaron Rodgers can provide enough relief in the passing game. Rodgers will not be mistaken for Favre any time soon and Grant could suffer for it. However, given his raw talent and breakaway speed, I still would put Grant down for 1,500 total yards and 9-11 TDs.
Honorable Mentions:
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - I'll be honest, I can't stand the way the media puts this guy on a pedistal, but I have to admit, he is a rare talent throwing the football. If Harrison can remain healthy (and out of off the field trouble - sounds weird to hear and say) then Manning should easily surpass 35 touchdown passes, and 4,000 yards or more is a given with this guy, considering he has accomplished that feat for 8 of the past 9 years running (his only miss was a 3,747 yard showing in 2005).
Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - When was the last time a Chiefs running back was not drafted in the top 3, let alone the first round? It seems like a long time, but this is the season that has too many question marks surrounding the Chiefs' back. First of all, Johnson has endured a lot of carries in a short time leading up to his injury that sidelined him last year - is that a sign of things to come, or a mere fluke? If Johnson can remain healthy he is just as dynamic as anyone and can provide a great steal in the late first; early second round - that is, IF he can stay healthy. The Chiefs like to run the ball, and Johnson likes to carry it - but does he have enough left in the tank? Only time will tell, but I'll pencil a healthy Larry Johnson in for 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns.
Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys - I put Barber in as a sleeper in terms of number one running back if taken in late round two or round three, but it seems he might actually be taken earlier than that. He runs hard, but the question remains if he can carry the load for a full season - how many of those punishing blows he delievers will leave him battered and bruised? Will it add up over the full season? Still, he has first round potential and does require first round consideration and should gain close to 1,200 total yards and a 12-15 TDs.
Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens - If the Ravens ever figure out the passing game, which they seem to be trying to do since their inception, McGahee will have loads of room to run. Even still, with limited room and teams stacking the box, McGahee still manages to be a solid producers and his numbers - given the scarcity of the running back position - warrant first round consideration as well. He should gain over 1,100 yards rushing - throw in another hundred or so yards receiving and 5-8 TDs.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch was also on my sleeper list for running backs, but I don't think he'll honestly last. He will be a tremendous resource no matter when drafted, even if in the first round. If he stays healthy and the Bills passing game improves (as it should, at least on paper) then look for Lynch to have more holes than he did last year. That can only lead to improved rushing totals, and hopefully more goal line touches. I figured Lynch will have about 1,200 total yards and a half dozen TDs rushing the ball - but this numbers could skyrocket if the passing game pans out as it should. The sky is the limit with Marshawn.
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