Here I will list those players I view as being a potential bust. The term "bust" is realitive to the round the player is expected to be drafted in, so no round and no player is safe from this list. Shall we begin:
Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns - Jamal is a big, tough running back, but he has lots of miles on his legs now. Given the fact that he had an outstanding season last year, his draft value has likely risen - meaning he has farther to fall. I don't see Jamal duplicating his numbers of last year - he may still be a 1,000 yard back this year, but 1,300 and beyond will be a stretch for the aging back.
Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - He is quick and is deadly in the open field, but he's small and durability might become a factor. Add in the fact that the Steelers drafted Rashard Mednenhall, and you have a running back by committee situation. I won't doubt Parker's abilities, but if he's taken before the second round, you'll be jumping the gun on this one.
Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings - I've seen Berrian on many a sleepers list this year, but I think he'll fall flat after signing the big (and probably overpaid) contract. Don't get me wrong, the guy can fly, but he only has marginal hands. Add in the fact that you can make the argument that his QB-situation has actually gotten worse and the running game is vastly improved moving from the Bears to the Vikings, and you can see that Berrian won't have many balls flying his way, whether he can fly or not.
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals - I don't care where you draft this guy, he is overrated. I believe even in his heyday he was overrated. For a running back in today's NFL to not catch the ball out of the back field he is automatically a bust (in my world). Given his recent injury history, and he is as safe a bet as any of someone you should just say no to.
Donte Stallworth, Cleveland Browns - If he is taken in the waining rounds, he might be a steal, but if he is drafted higher than that, he will be considered a bust. He has all the talent and speed to excel, but the Browns are not a good fit for Stallworth since there are not enough balls to go around in Cleveland - he will have the occasional big day, but his inconsistency will hamper his fantasy value.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Don't fall into the delusion that just because Brett Favre had success in Green Bay that Aaron Rodgers will follow suit. Rodgers is a few notches down from Brett and even though his receivers are the same - Favre made those receivers look better than they are (and you can make an arguement that Driver and Jennings will both be overvalued as well - Jennings likely to be the more productive of the two). If Ryan Grant can't hit the ground running then Rodgers will struggle mightily - I expect Grant to alleviate some of the pressure, but Rodgers' numbers won't be nearly as impressive as you would hope.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - In my running back sleepers post, I mention Turner, but I also mention he could flop given the Falcons lethargic offense. Turner is definitely a high risk, high reward guy. A lot of people are picking him to excel, but I am having trouble seeing this. He produced in San Diego and has all the tools to be a star back in this league, but not when playing on a Falcons' offense lead by Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, or Joey Harrington.
Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Given his name alone, he still carries a reputation as "play maker" but if you delve into the numbers you'll notice just another average NFL ball carrier. If he goes too high, his numbers will not justify the selection - but for him to be taken in a place that isn't considered "too high" he would have to fall to the 5th round or beyond, and in most cases that will not happen. If he falls to beyond the 5th round, he might carry some value - but will he be drafted based on his name alone? Most likely.
Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I hate to say it; I really do. I like Earnest Graham. He works hard and played well in extensive work last season, however, he lacks the physical gifts required to succeed as a star. Since Cadillac will be coming back and Dunn has reemerged as a Buccaneer, Graham has potential to falling hard and fast. Best case scenario for Graham is he duplicates his statistics of last season - worst case scenario is he finds himself buried on the depth chart. Due to this uncertainty, I would pass on Graham until the middle to late rounds, but he is (for now) atop the Bucs depth chart, and will likely be taken before the end of the fourth round - far too high for someone that has so far to potentially fall. I hope I am wrong on this one.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - Jones-Drew has tremendous speed and he can take ever carry to the barn, but he has two negatives against him. First of all, Fred Taylor is still in Jacksonville and he will command at least half of the carries which will limit Jones-Drew's touches. Secondly, Jones-Drew must overcome his size (much like Brian Westbrook has been able to do) and he has yet to shed the notion that due to his size, he can't carry the load. Jones-Drew is diminutive in ever sense of the word, but sometimes that small stature can help him run in limited space. He is a good back, but will likely be drafted too early to warrant the workload he is likely to get.
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - McNabb has been overrated for years, and I think it is finally coming out. For a quarterback that has only had about 2 good seasons, he sure was always high on draft boards. Given the fact that he no longer looks to run, he has certainly slipped in the fantasy department. If at all possible, pass on McNabb. He warrants a backup at best.
Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - He's fast and has big play capabilities, but he has been slipping in recent memory. It seems either Jason Campbell can't figure it out, or he and Moss simply do not click, but either way, Moss is a wideout you might consider passing on. As a mid-round backup he might help a team in spotty duty, but if you need a starting, every week receiver, keep looking.
Chad Pennington, New York Jets - Pennington is going to manage the game, nothing more and nothing less. He will be good as a spot starter, but not an every week guy. If you are looking for a strong, durable quarterback then you need to take another look at who's left on the board. Chad is a good QB for the Jets, but not for fantasy football championships.
Matt Hasselback, Seattle Seahawks - His prime has passed him. If he had gotten the ball and scored (and not for the other team) in Green Bay, perhaps he'd have a championship ring by now, but since he did not (and since he failed against the Steelers) he has fallen from grace. Also, Seattle's offense is in shambles and probably won't be resurrected this season - if at all in the near future.
Mark Bulger, St. Louis Rams - Bulger was never the all star quarterback he was made out to be. Even in his heyday he still threw too many interceptions and never quite led the Rams the way Kurt Warner did before him. Throw in the loss of Issac Bruce, the aging of Torry Holt, and the recent injuries to Bulger himself, and you can find a better QB in the pool. Don't be fooled by Bulger's past success.
Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers - Chambers is a big target that had mild success in Miami, but now in San Diego, his yard per game has dropped, and even though his touchdowns were up in San Diego last year, it isn't enough to offset the drop in overall prodcution. Chambers is one of those receivers that never quite developed fully - once a sleeper candidate himself, this year Chambers is someone you should avoid considering all the other talent in San Diego that will warrant the ball before Chambers. He is a backup at best.
Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Johnson has had lots of success in the past, but is that past catching up with him? His body might be breaking down from the number of carries from season's past. If he can stay healthy, he's still a force, but that could be a big if. If someone falls into a trance, and views last season as an outlier, then it's possible Johnson will be drafted too high, and thus, he finds himself on this list. He is a late first round or second round pick at this point in his career.
Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns - Jamal is a big, tough running back, but he has lots of miles on his legs now. Given the fact that he had an outstanding season last year, his draft value has likely risen - meaning he has farther to fall. I don't see Jamal duplicating his numbers of last year - he may still be a 1,000 yard back this year, but 1,300 and beyond will be a stretch for the aging back.
Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers - He is quick and is deadly in the open field, but he's small and durability might become a factor. Add in the fact that the Steelers drafted Rashard Mednenhall, and you have a running back by committee situation. I won't doubt Parker's abilities, but if he's taken before the second round, you'll be jumping the gun on this one.
Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings - I've seen Berrian on many a sleepers list this year, but I think he'll fall flat after signing the big (and probably overpaid) contract. Don't get me wrong, the guy can fly, but he only has marginal hands. Add in the fact that you can make the argument that his QB-situation has actually gotten worse and the running game is vastly improved moving from the Bears to the Vikings, and you can see that Berrian won't have many balls flying his way, whether he can fly or not.
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals - I don't care where you draft this guy, he is overrated. I believe even in his heyday he was overrated. For a running back in today's NFL to not catch the ball out of the back field he is automatically a bust (in my world). Given his recent injury history, and he is as safe a bet as any of someone you should just say no to.
Donte Stallworth, Cleveland Browns - If he is taken in the waining rounds, he might be a steal, but if he is drafted higher than that, he will be considered a bust. He has all the talent and speed to excel, but the Browns are not a good fit for Stallworth since there are not enough balls to go around in Cleveland - he will have the occasional big day, but his inconsistency will hamper his fantasy value.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Don't fall into the delusion that just because Brett Favre had success in Green Bay that Aaron Rodgers will follow suit. Rodgers is a few notches down from Brett and even though his receivers are the same - Favre made those receivers look better than they are (and you can make an arguement that Driver and Jennings will both be overvalued as well - Jennings likely to be the more productive of the two). If Ryan Grant can't hit the ground running then Rodgers will struggle mightily - I expect Grant to alleviate some of the pressure, but Rodgers' numbers won't be nearly as impressive as you would hope.
Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - In my running back sleepers post, I mention Turner, but I also mention he could flop given the Falcons lethargic offense. Turner is definitely a high risk, high reward guy. A lot of people are picking him to excel, but I am having trouble seeing this. He produced in San Diego and has all the tools to be a star back in this league, but not when playing on a Falcons' offense lead by Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, or Joey Harrington.
Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - Given his name alone, he still carries a reputation as "play maker" but if you delve into the numbers you'll notice just another average NFL ball carrier. If he goes too high, his numbers will not justify the selection - but for him to be taken in a place that isn't considered "too high" he would have to fall to the 5th round or beyond, and in most cases that will not happen. If he falls to beyond the 5th round, he might carry some value - but will he be drafted based on his name alone? Most likely.
Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - I hate to say it; I really do. I like Earnest Graham. He works hard and played well in extensive work last season, however, he lacks the physical gifts required to succeed as a star. Since Cadillac will be coming back and Dunn has reemerged as a Buccaneer, Graham has potential to falling hard and fast. Best case scenario for Graham is he duplicates his statistics of last season - worst case scenario is he finds himself buried on the depth chart. Due to this uncertainty, I would pass on Graham until the middle to late rounds, but he is (for now) atop the Bucs depth chart, and will likely be taken before the end of the fourth round - far too high for someone that has so far to potentially fall. I hope I am wrong on this one.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars - Jones-Drew has tremendous speed and he can take ever carry to the barn, but he has two negatives against him. First of all, Fred Taylor is still in Jacksonville and he will command at least half of the carries which will limit Jones-Drew's touches. Secondly, Jones-Drew must overcome his size (much like Brian Westbrook has been able to do) and he has yet to shed the notion that due to his size, he can't carry the load. Jones-Drew is diminutive in ever sense of the word, but sometimes that small stature can help him run in limited space. He is a good back, but will likely be drafted too early to warrant the workload he is likely to get.
Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles - McNabb has been overrated for years, and I think it is finally coming out. For a quarterback that has only had about 2 good seasons, he sure was always high on draft boards. Given the fact that he no longer looks to run, he has certainly slipped in the fantasy department. If at all possible, pass on McNabb. He warrants a backup at best.
Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - He's fast and has big play capabilities, but he has been slipping in recent memory. It seems either Jason Campbell can't figure it out, or he and Moss simply do not click, but either way, Moss is a wideout you might consider passing on. As a mid-round backup he might help a team in spotty duty, but if you need a starting, every week receiver, keep looking.
Chad Pennington, New York Jets - Pennington is going to manage the game, nothing more and nothing less. He will be good as a spot starter, but not an every week guy. If you are looking for a strong, durable quarterback then you need to take another look at who's left on the board. Chad is a good QB for the Jets, but not for fantasy football championships.
Matt Hasselback, Seattle Seahawks - His prime has passed him. If he had gotten the ball and scored (and not for the other team) in Green Bay, perhaps he'd have a championship ring by now, but since he did not (and since he failed against the Steelers) he has fallen from grace. Also, Seattle's offense is in shambles and probably won't be resurrected this season - if at all in the near future.
Mark Bulger, St. Louis Rams - Bulger was never the all star quarterback he was made out to be. Even in his heyday he still threw too many interceptions and never quite led the Rams the way Kurt Warner did before him. Throw in the loss of Issac Bruce, the aging of Torry Holt, and the recent injuries to Bulger himself, and you can find a better QB in the pool. Don't be fooled by Bulger's past success.
Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers - Chambers is a big target that had mild success in Miami, but now in San Diego, his yard per game has dropped, and even though his touchdowns were up in San Diego last year, it isn't enough to offset the drop in overall prodcution. Chambers is one of those receivers that never quite developed fully - once a sleeper candidate himself, this year Chambers is someone you should avoid considering all the other talent in San Diego that will warrant the ball before Chambers. He is a backup at best.
Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs - Johnson has had lots of success in the past, but is that past catching up with him? His body might be breaking down from the number of carries from season's past. If he can stay healthy, he's still a force, but that could be a big if. If someone falls into a trance, and views last season as an outlier, then it's possible Johnson will be drafted too high, and thus, he finds himself on this list. He is a late first round or second round pick at this point in his career.
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